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Improved scalability and risk factor proxying with a two-step principal component analysis for multi-curve modelling

Atkins, Philip J. orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-5182-7863 and Cummins, Mark orcid logoORCID: 0000-0002-3539-8843 (2022) Improved scalability and risk factor proxying with a two-step principal component analysis for multi-curve modelling. European Journal of Operational Research, 304 (3). pp. 1331-1348. ISSN 0377-2217

Abstract
We consider the practice-relevant problem of modelling multiple price curves to support activities such as price curve simulation and risk management. In this multi-curve setting, the challenge is to jointly capture the risk-factor relationships within each curve and the risk-factor relationships between the curves. Contributing to the existing literature, we develop a novel two-step Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method, which we label PCA, that addresses this challenge. The concept of PCA first derives components describing the dynamics of each curve, and then, second, combines these to describe the dynamics across all the curves. The benefits of PCA over PCA are: (i) improved scalability allowing for greater computational efficiency and smaller data structures rendering multi-threading more feasible; (ii) components that remain identifiable at the curve level; and (iii) leveraging the last property, PCA, unlike PCA, offers the capability of proxying new curves for which limited historical data exists, using the first-step components from a related curve and estimating second-level correlations empirically. PCA is a novel multi-curve modelling approach that will appeal, for these reasons, to many practitioners, especially those working in risk management.
Metadata
Item Type:Article (Published)
Refereed:Yes
Uncontrolled Keywords:Risk management; Multiple price curve modelling; Two-step PCA; Risk factor proxying; Energy markets
Subjects:Business > Finance
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > DCU Business School
Publisher:Elsevier
Official URL:https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2022.04.044
Copyright Information:© 2022 The Authors.
ID Code:27858
Deposited On:13 Oct 2022 15:15 by Thomas Murtagh . Last Modified 15 Mar 2023 16:17
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