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A mathematical model for measles epidemics in Ireland

Comiskey, Catherine M. (1988) A mathematical model for measles epidemics in Ireland. Master of Science thesis, Dublin City University.

Abstract
The aim of this work is to establish a matnematical model for measles epidemics and to predict levels of vaccination coverage require! in Ireland in order to eradicate tne disease The emphasis througnout has oeen to derive the parameters of the model using data collected in Ireland. To achieve this a nonlinear differential equation model first oroposed by Anderson R M. and May R.M. has been adopted and adjusted to meet our application. In Chapter 1 we introduce the concept of mathematically modelling the dynamics of an infectious disease and we also propose a simple constant parameter model We then move on in Chapter 2 to discuss what is known as ”the force of the infection". This is then calculated for Ireland by testing over 100 blood samples for measles antibodies. In Chapter 3 we estimated the Irish interepidemic period using Hopf's bifurcation theorem. In Chapter 4 we move on to the more detailed model with age dependence. We also estimate the age dependent survival rate jj(a) for the Irish population. Finally, in Chapters 5 and 6, we look at immunisation and the results predicted by the model. In Chapter 5 we derive c(a), the Irish age dependent vaccination rate This is accomplished by computerising over 4,000 immunisations. We also predict how the reproductive rate, R , of the disease will change with vaccination. In Chapter 6 we numerically analyse the model with the Irish age dependent parameters and we predict the levels of vaccination required in order to eradicate measles in Ireland.
Metadata
Item Type:Thesis (Master of Science)
Date of Award:1988
Refereed:No
Additional Information:This scanned electronic copy is of reasonably poor quality due to the age and quality of the original print thesis. However, the electronic copy does contain full OCR text.
Supervisor(s):Wood, Alastair
Uncontrolled Keywords:Epidemics; Mathematical modelling
Subjects:Mathematics
DCU Faculties and Centres:DCU Faculties and Schools > Faculty of Science and Health > School of Mathematical Sciences
Use License:This item is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License. View License
ID Code:19193
Deposited On:05 Sep 2013 13:13 by Celine Campbell . Last Modified 07 Oct 2013 14:46
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